Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Snow Storm!

It's supposed to be snowing hard for the next few days. It just started tonight. Nice, wet, sticky, heavy stuff. It's going to be fun shovelling out tomorrow morning. The wether report I just read is also listing "freezing fog" as a condition happening right now. I don't know what freezing fog, but it sounds Just took some pictures of the the snow coming down. Not sure how they will come out here, but it is worth a shot. Note, the little flecks in the picture aren't all artifacts from the low-light conditions.



Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Game Theory

I was over at SomethingAwful.com looking through the the forums (the "goons" there often post some funny/interesting stuff) when I ran across an interesting problem someone posted there involving game theory. If you don't want to you don't want to click the above the link, here is a copy of the problem:

A priestess at Delphi has a record of .99 accuracy in her predictions of human behavior. On an altar before you are two boxes: an opaque one whose contents you cannot determine and a transparent one obviously containing a silver coin, which you judge to have the market value of $1000. She gives you two choices: (1) take only the opaque box or (2) take both boxes. As she correctly tells you, she has or has not previously placed inside the opaque box a large gold coin worth 1000 times the silver one, depending upon whether she expects you, as a rational agent, to take only the opaque box or both boxes. Should you take only the opaque box or both boxes, knowing that 99 out of 100 agents who took both found the opaque box empty? Or should you forego the silver coin and take only the opaque box, knowing that some- although only 1 out of 100- came up with nothing? Why?

The problem is more complex than it looks on the surface, and that becomes apparent if you read through the thread on that discussion. It is easy to say "take both boxes" (a guarenteed somehting is better than a chance at nothing) but then there are a few goons in the thread that show mathematically how it is better to take only the opaque box. Very interesting stuff.

Another game theory problem I remember is called the Prisoner's Dilemma. Basically, you and an adversary are competing for a prize. You have to make one of two choices: either cooperate with your adversary, or betray them. If you both choose to cooperate, you get to split the prize evenly, but if you choose to betray while your opponent chooses to cooperate, you get the whole thing (it works the other way as well). If you both betray each other, you get nothing. So what is your best option?

There was a game show based on this problem at one time called Friend or Foe. It wasn't a very good show, but I thought the premise they used for it was cool. I haven't studied much on game theory (will have to add it to my to-do list), but I dig what I have seen.

Addendum: It occurs to me now, though (after reading further), that if you can mathematically show that it is always better to take only the opaque box, wouldn't the "rational agent" always go for it? Therefore, wouldn't the oracle choose not to put the gold coin in that box 99% of the time? Therefore, the rational agent would be best off going for both boxes. But knowing that changes the way the rational agent should behave in the first place, and you end up right back at square one.

Apparently, this is a variation on Newcomb's Paradox, which is explained very nicely by Wikipedia (Wikipedia rocks!). Go ahead and read it.

I also just realized that certain readers (you know who you are) may find that I am sticking my foot in my mouth big time by posting this, or at least being inconsistent. I don't know how to reconcile that other than to say that if my college philosophy course had gone into game theory, I might have been able to take it more seriously.

Skinny Longfeet

I went to the Acadia Cafe last Friday. It's a neat little coffee/sandwich/beer place near Uptown. I had never been there before, but it is this awesome, chill little place. Though I did not have any of the food, what I saw looked excellent and well worth checking out. The beer selection, of which I did partake, though, is quite impressive. They also have a mini concert hall in the back complete with stage and stadium-like seating, which judging by their performance calendar, is utilized quite often. It's an enjoyable little spot and I highly recommend checking it out.

The whole reason for going, though, was to see a band made up of a bunch of guys I went to college with and even had the pleasure of playing with at one time. They are Skinny Longfeet. The evening was headed up by Brian Just and his band, followed by Kirsten Melrose, both delivering nice low-key folksy performances. Then Mary Bue performed solo with just a keyboard and her voice. Awesome. The night was capped off by Skinny Longfeet giving their debut performance in the Cities (go to their above linked MySpace page to hear some of their tracks). It was great to see those guys again and hear them play.

It was a lot of fun, and it was great night to just sit back, relax, and take it all in. The Acadia was a good venue for it too. I'll have to do it again sometime.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Superbowl

I went over to Karin and Nick's to watch the Superbowl tonight. It was a lot of fun with lots of food and friends. Which was good, because the game itself was pretty much a let down. Aside from the incredible number of fumbles and interceptions, there really wasn't anything remarkable about it. Well, I guess there the return for a touchdown on the firts kickoff, but that's usually kind a bad omen. Not something you expect to see when what are supposed to be the two best teams in the league play each other.

Of course, the highlight of most Superbowls is the comercials. Well, the marketing companies must have decided to take this year off, because they were mostly suck as well.

So the highlight here was the party at Karin and Nick's. But of course that was really the point anyway. And I had a good time.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Warm Hearth

Yesterday I finally got tools for my fireplace, and with as cold as it's been (below 0 degrees Fahrenheit all weekend), it seemed a perfect time to fire it up. It's very nice. In fact, I decided to move my laptop out from my office into my living room just so I could write this post in front of it. There is just something about a fire to keep you warm...